Suddenly everyone is asking: who lost Russia? The New York Times Magazine posed
the question in a cover story last August, and it has since been the subject of
long articles in the Times and the Washington Post, as well as of innumerable
columns in major newspapers. The op-ed pieces in the New York Times and Wall
Street Journal have been virtually indistinguishable in their anti-Russian
animus (a coincidence that ought to give pause to the editors of both papers).
With the Republicans in the House of Representatives holding hearings on the
matter and Governor Bush's presidential campaign turning the issue into a major
avenue of attack on the Clinton-Gore record, an irredeemable Russia is likely
to remain a fixture of political discussion in the coming months.
Unfortunately, this important debate is being conducted like a kangaroo court.
Not only have the accused -- both Americans and, especially, Russians -- been
tried and found guilty in absentia, but, contrary to the Anglo-Saxon legal
tradition, the discovery stage, when the underlying facts are established and
each side presents its version of events, has been skipped entirely. Before the
sentence is handed down, ought we not at least try to find out whether, in
fact, a crime has taken place: Has Russia, indeed, been "lost" to the cause of
the free market and democracy?
A hodgepodge of facts, half-truths, clichs and distortions, the case for the
prosecution comes down to a few simple postulates. First, free-market reforms
have failed to make Russia a prosperous country with a growing GDP. "Reform" (a
word rarely used without quotes these days) was nothing but the "entrenchment
of a kleptocracy in which corrupt officials ally with a few business magnates
to send wealth out of the country," according to Fritz Ermarth in the New York
Times of Sept. 12. "Reform" never enjoyed even a modicum of popular support but
was forced on a defenseless country by "reformers around Yeltsin" and their
Western, especially International Monetary Fund, advisers with the connivance
of the White House. After eight years, goes the indictment, Russia still does
not have even an approximation of a market economy. Instead, "reform" resulted
in universal impoverishment. Today's Russia is a handful of thieving
"oligarchs" feasting amidst the general penury.
In the political sphere, democratic institutions have not taken root. This
"Weimar Russia" is an unstable, "failing state," in the words of Condoleezza
Rice, George W. Bush's top foreign policy adviser, who has mentioned Russia in
the same breath as the "failed states" of North Korea and Iraq. As House
majority leader Dick Armey so elegantly put it, "Russia has become a looted and
bankrupt zone of nuclearized anarchy."
In foreign policy, asserts the prosecution, Boris Yeltsin has not delivered
where America's core national interests are concerned, and the "investment" in
him by the Clinton administration was wrong and a waste. All these failures
have soured the Russians on capitalism, democracy, the West in general and the United States in particular
and made them ripe for Communist revanche, anti-Western nationalist
dictatorship or an even scarier combination of the two.
One of the most puzzling features of the argument that Russia has been "lost"
is its ahistoricism. Post-Communist Russia is discussed as if it had no past.
There seems to be total amnesia about the conditions that were so memorably
exposed by glasnost in the waning years of the Soviet Union. For instance, in
1989, the last year of relative stability before the crisis became
uncontrollable, the average salary in the Soviet Union was 200 rubles a month:
$ 33 at the official exchange rate, $ 13 on the -- still illegal then -- free
currency market. (The average salary in Russia today is $ 75.) The Soviet Union
was in 77th place in the world in personal consumption. Of 211 essential food
products, only 23 were regularly available in state stores. Russians spent
between 40 and 68 hours a month in queues.
When Kuzbass miners walked off the job in July 1989, precipitating Russia's
first national strike since 1918, their demands included a towel and 800 grams
of soap a month for after-shift washing, and padded cotton jackets. As part of
the settlement, the government agreed to deliver to Kuzbass 10,000 tons of
sugar, 3,000 tons of washing powder, 3,000 tons of soap, over 6,000 tons of
meat, 5 million cans of dairy products and 1,000 tons of tea.
According to the minister of health, a total of 1,200,000 hospital beds (35
percent of the total) were in facilities with no hot water; every sixth
hospital bed was in a facility with no running water at all; 30 percent of
Soviet hospitals did not have indoor toilets. The Soviet Union had a higher
rate of infant mortality than 49 nations, behind Barbados and the United Arab
Emirates. Half of Soviet schools had no central heating, running water or
indoor toilets.
By the time Boris Yeltsin took over Russia in the fall of 1991, the country's
economy was collapsing. Domestic production declined by 13 percent that year,
the budget deficit soared to 30 percent of GDP, the annual inflation rate was
93 percent, hard currency and gold reserves were nearly exhausted, and the
U.S.S.R. defaulted on its international loans. No one who was in Moscow in the
fall of 1991 will ever forget the absolutely bare shelves of the stores, the
ration coupons for sugar, tobacco and soap, and the sacks of potatoes stored on
the balconies of apartment buildings in the center of Moscow, as their
inhabitants prepared for famine.
Brief as it is, this sketch belies the postulate of a Russia "ruined" by
reform. The picture we are offered of a handful of oligarchs presiding over a
sea of starving millions is an equally crude caricature. Today the queues in
stores -- bane of four generations of Russians -- have disappeared, and Russian
shops, for the first time since the mid-1920s, offer a cornucopia of quality
food and goods. In 1997, for the first time in 40 years, Russia was
self-sufficient in grain. In fact, it exported millions of tons of grain in
1998, even as agro-bureaucrats in the Kremlin and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture were arranging shipments from the United States to meet a
nonexistent emergency.
While it is true that millions of people -- especially retirees, collective
farmers and workers in the mammoth military-industrial complex -- were
impoverished by galloping inflation and cuts in state spending, millions more
-- urban, younger and better educated (who voted for Yeltsin in overwhelming
numbers in the 1996 presidential election) -- saw a dramatic improvement in
their professional and personal lives. For the first time in Russian history,
there is a sizable middle class and intelligentsia outside state employ. Before
the crisis of August 1998, almost one-fifth (18 percent) of Russians surveyed
stated that the economic situation of their own family was improving.
Between 1990 and 1997, car ownership increased by 72 percent from 18 per 100
families to 31. Of the total population of 150 million, 20 million Russians
were estimated by tax agencies to have traveled abroad in 1997. According to
the World Tourism Organization, in a country by country ranking of top-spending
tourists in 1996, Russians came 10th, behind Americans, Germans and Japanese,
but ahead of South Koreans, Brazilians, Spaniards, and Chinese.
The new Russian middle class suffered greatly in the crisis of 1998, and it may
take a few years for the standard of living to return to pre-crash levels.
Yet there is no reason to doubt that this will happen. It may currently be all
the rage in Washington to speak of Russia's "virtual economy," but we are
suddenly discovering that a Russian market economy does exist after all and,
despite its deep distortions, responds to economic stimuli much as any market
economy would. In full accordance with supply-side theory, the continuing
absence of price controls, a cheaper but stable national currency and a drastic
reduction of imports have unleashed domestic production. Russian-made food and
goods fill the stores. Industrial production (or rather its registered and
taxable part) was 4.5 percent higher in the first six months of 1999 than in the first six months of
1998, and it grew even faster after that. Contrary to many a forecast, there is
no starvation.
With the demise of astronomic interest rates and of the fantastically lucrative
domestic bond market, money that used to flow into treasury bills is becoming
available to industry. There is less and less barter. The RTS index of top
Russian companies has grown 300 percent since October 1998. Exports declined by
5 percent in the first eight months of this year, and imports fell by 45
percent, leaving the country with a large trade surplus that is likely to
stabilize the ruble. The cheaper ruble and a sharp increase in oil prices have
greatly helped to reduce the budget deficit. In August, Russia collected more
tax revenues than in any month in its eight-year post-Communist history (30.8
billion rubles, or $ 1.25 billion) and paid off all the state pension arrears,
which had amounted to 26 billion rubles ($ 1 billion) in January 1999. Contrary
to many a confident prediction of hyperinflation, the 1999 inflation rate is
not likely to exceed 40 percent or the exchange rate to dip below 32 rubles to
the dollar.
Breaking with the "state capitalism" of the "oligarchs," thousands of young
entrepreneurs, many of whom got their start in the oligarchs' financial empires
and made fortunes in Treasury-bill trading, currency speculation and arbitrage,
are starting new businesses and investing their own money in pharmaceuticals,
paper, dozens of new brands of beer, packaged snacks and clothing. Bypassing
the largely insolvent Moscow banks, which have been little more than
currency-trading and bond-recycling stations, successful Russian firms are
acting as small banks, investing their profits often outside their immediate
sectors and making loans to other businesses.
Another mainstay of the thesis that Russia has been "lost" is the claim that
the Russians have rejected capitalism. In fact, after three generations
entirely in state employ, Russians remain sharply divided on the issue of
private vs. state ownership of the economy. In a national poll commissioned by
the United States Information Agency at the beginning of this year, 41 percent
favored a "mostly" or "completely" state-owned economy, while 50 percent felt
either that the economy should be " mostly" or " completely" privately owned
(16 percent) or that it should be a " mix" of private and state ownership (34
percent).
Then there is the myth that Yeltsin won the 1996 presidential election by
buying 40 million votes with the oligarchs' money. In reality, Russian voters
that year made a monumental and informed choice worthy of a great people -- a
choice between two fundamentally different visions of Russia.
Yeltsin ran on a platform of continuing but " modified" and " socially
oriented" reforms, while Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist candidate, called for
a return to state control (if not outright ownership) of the economy. Zyuganov
presented his case to the public in a vigorous national campaign. Between
January and July, the Communist alternative was expounded by over 150
pro-Communist local and national newspapers and magazines, the national dailies
alone with a combined circulation of over 10 million. Tens of thousands of
Communist organizers campaigned door to door. Millions of leaflets were
distributed. And the Communists enjoyed three and a half hours of free prime
time on national television and held hundreds of campaign rallies.
Although most Russians tell pollsters they are dissatisfied with the " way
democracy works" in their country, solid majorities reject a restoration of "
order" if the price is forgoing key civil and political liberties -- habeas
corpus limits on police, the freedom to hold political meetings and
demonstrations, free elections, the right to travel abroad, and an uncensored
press. In 1994 virtually equal proportions of respondents supported and opposed
a dictatorship to " restore order in Russia" (35 percent and 33 percent
respectively). In 1997, the opposition to a dictatorship grew to 55 percent,
while support stagnated at 35 percent.
Allegedly a " failing" state and " zone of nuclearized anarchy," Russia in the
past six years has held three free national elections (two parliamentary and
one presidential), two national referenda, and in each of its 89 provinces at
least one (sometimes two) election for a legislature and governor. On only one
occasion -- the Duma elections and simultaneous constitutional referendum in
December 1993, three months after the bloodshed at Russia's parliament building
-- did turnout fall below 64 percent of eligible voters. Nearly 70 million
Russians (just under 70 percent of all eligible adults) voted in the
presidential election in 1996. There were 50 human rights groups in Russia in
1996. Today, there are 1,200.
This is a regime that -- even with its many very real, even gross flaws -- is
the most open and liberal in the country's history. The press is free from
government censorship. The opposition, no matter how radical, can publish and
campaign for office. Free and fiercely competitive multi-candidate elections
are the norm at both the local and national levels. After 1,000 years of
authoritarianism and totalitarianism, Russia is radically decentralized, yet
whole, with political power dispersed both geographically among the regions and
among diverse centers of power on the national level. No party (much less
person, even the president) can dominate and mold Russian national politics at
will.
Following the Constitutional Court's lead, local judges routinely rule against
local government agencies (as when the latter tried to restrict the activities
of " foreign" religious denominations), the Kremlin, the army (when it sought
to punish conscientious objectors), and the secret police. In a typical
instance of citizens' taking on the government in court, last July an Internet
provider in the southern city of Volgograd rejected the demand of the Federal
Security Service that the company monitor its customers' use of the Web. The
security agency retaliated by blocking the firm's use of the satellite channel
that gave it access to the Web. The firm brought suit against the FSB, and a
decision is pending.
Although woefully inadequate by the standards of older democracies, Russia is
by far the freest, most democratic nation of all the post-Soviet states save
the three Baltic countries. Even as severe a test as the past year's financial
crisis, with the devaluation of the ruble and the government's default on its
domestic debt, did not result in riots and the disintegration of authority, as
in Indonesia, or in show trials of high-level scapegoats and the jailing of
journalists, as in Malaysia. There was not the slightest infringement of human
rights or political liberties, curtailment of the press or harassment of the
opposition. The Communists' attempt to capitalize on the crisis failed
miserably when the much ballyhooed " Red October" turned out at best 200,000
people on the streets -- in a country of 150 million.
Of all the grounds for arguing that Russia has been " lost," Yeltsin's alleged
failure to deliver in foreign and security policies is the most astonishing,
because the evidence to the contrary is unambiguous. Never before has there
been a Russian regime whose foreign and security policies were so beneficial
for the United States and its allies.
First, of course, there was the demilitarization of the state and society, the
scope of which is likely without precedent in modern history for an undeed
country.
In 1992, acting prime minister Yegor Gaidar cut defense spending by 80 percent.
By 1996, expenditures for procurement and military construction were nine times
lower than in 1990 and for research and development 10 times lower.
This year, Russia is spending 2.3 percent of GDP on defense. In the days of the
Soviet Union, military spending was estimated to be as high as 70 percent of
GDP. Between January 1992 and January 1998, the Russian armed forces shrank in
manpower from 4 million to 1.2 million. But by far the most important
development for U.S. national security is Russian nuclear disarmament. In 1991,
Russia had 10,000 deployable strategic nuclear weapons. That number was reduced
to 6,000 after START I went into effect in December 1994. Even though the Duma
never ratified START II, Russia unilaterally cut its arsenal by 25 percent
below the START I limit to 4,500 warheads today. Instead of adhering to the
START II schedule of 3,000 to 3,500 warheads by the year 2007, Moscow proposed
to the United States this past August to bring the totals to 1,500 weapons or
fewer.
Another boon to the West -- the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet domestic
empire -- exceeded virtually everyone's expectations and defied myriad gloomy
scenarios. One need only recall the bloody divorces between India and Pakistan,
Britain and Ireland, and, of course, Serbia and other republics of the former
Yugoslavia to appreciate the immensity of Yeltsin's achievement. Signed by
Yeltsin in Kiev on May 31, 1997, after painful territorial concessions to
Ukraine made in the face of almost unanimous opposition from the leading
politicians, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between
Russia and Ukraine is as critical to the stability of post-Cold War Europe as
the French-German rapprochement engineered by Charles de Gaulle and Konrad
Adenauer in 1958 was to the post-World War II order.
Time and again, Yeltsin took foreign policy positions distasteful not just to
the " popular patriotic" left but to most of the Russian political class.
Repeatedly the president was offered on a silver platter opportunities to
bolster his popularity by whipping up nationalism and anti-American hysteria --
and every time he declined, patching up frayed relations with Washington by
accommodation and cooperation. Such was the case with NATO expansion; with
sanctions against Iraq; with Bosnia and, despite hollers of protest from the
Left and his own foreign ministry, with Kosovo. (Last spring, he fired the
darling of the Moscow political class, Primakov, in large measure because of
his stubborn opposition to Russia's cooperation with NATO over Kosovo.)
By far the most solid charge brought against Russia by the doomsayers is
corruption. This scourge saps the legitimacy of the state, distorts the market,
impedes foreign investment and ultimately costs Russian consumers and taxpayers
trillions of rubles every year. Before it was suddenly discovered by the " Who
lost Russia?" crew, the subject had been discussed by scholars for years. The
problem here is not that the critics have the facts wrong (although they
indulge in hyperbole), but that they fail to locate this evil in its historic
and geographic context.
Inconvenient though it may be to American columnists and members of Congress,
the truth is that Northwest European-style capitalism -- originally Protestant,
Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian -- is very rare in the world today. Most countries
will require decades, perhaps centuries, of experience with the free market and
democracy before they attain a similar standard. The going is likely to be
especially rough in Russia's neighborhood, which -- from Romania and Bulgaria
to Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China -- has been notoriously
corrupt for centuries.
Like its neighbors, Russia has been corrupt for centuries. But corruption
reached its apogee under the Communists. By extirpating, suppressing or
subverting the civil and governmental institutions that promote self-restraint
and personal responsibility (the church, charities, professional associations
and an independent judiciary), by censoring everything that was published, by
making the party nomenklatura immune from criminal prosecution, Soviet
totalitarianism achieved universal thievery and bribery. "Tell me where you
work, and I will tell you what you are carrying home in your bag," went a
Soviet underground joke in the 1970s. In a superb primer on Soviet corruption
(" U.S.S.R.: The Corrupt Society," written in the 1970s and published in the
United States in 1982), a former leading Soviet legal scholar, Konstantin
Simis, called the Soviet Union " the land of kleptocracy." Describing the
country's " horrible moral state," Gorbachev's first prime minister, Nikolai
Ryzhkov (now a Communist leader in the Duma), wrote of the country in the
1980s, " We stole from ourselves, we took bribes, we wallowed in lies."
The burden of this history is compounded by the realities of economic
transition. In the no-man's-land between the state-controlled economy and the
free market -- where some restrictions have been removed while others remain,
and former state property is left defenseless as a beached whale -- the hungry,
newly empowered entrepreneur meets the impoverished bureaucrat or politician,
who sells him access to the beach. Corruption of this type was or is a problem
in Carlos Menem's Argentina, Fernando Cordoso's Brazil, Carlos Salinas' Mexico,
Kim Dae Jung's South Korea, Turgut Ozal's Turkey, Nelson Mandela's
South Africa and all the post-Communist nations without exception. (Russia,
indeed, is the least corrupt of the countries of the former U.S.S.R., with the
exception of the Baltics.)
Of course, neither history nor political culture absolves the guilty. They do,
however, have clear policy implications. The roots of Russian corruption go
much deeper than the alleged mistakes and personal frailties of Yeltsin and the
" reformers." In societies where corruption is hereditary, the problem can be
alleviated only by decades of democratic politics and press freedom, over
several post-Communist generations.
Dealing with corrupt regimes for the sake of overriding national or global
interests poses no problem either for the United States or for world financial
institutions.
It would be a terrible blunder to make Russian corruption synonymous with the
failure of Russia's grand experiment in free-market economics. There is a
critical distinction between the countries where corruption overwhelms the
state and the economy and leads to a breakdown or permanent crisis (Albania,
Indonesia, Venezuela, Colombia) and those where corruption, no matter how
ubiquitous, still allows for democratic order, economic progress and
integration in the world economy (Italy, Turkey). Russia appears to be evolving
along the latter path.
Post-Communist Russia's epic experiment with self-rule, political liberty and
the free market is like the progress of a long and disorderly wagon train
trekking across a vast and swampy plain, stopping, zigzagging, occasionally
almost drowning in mud, yet stubbornly plowing forward. Following close behind
but never quite catching up with the caravan is a crowd of journalists and
experts. Their heads are hanging. They look neither forward, to see where the
road might lead; nor back, to measure the astonishing distance already covered;
nor even to the sides, to compare the caravan's progress with that of Russia's
neighbors. They look only downward, at the dirt on the wheels, the ruts in the
road, and the ugly swamp creatures awakened by the wagon train's passage and
feasting on the refuse in its wake.
A longer and broader view yields different observations. There is a great deal
in today's Russia that, to the citizen of a mature liberal democracy, appears
flawed or even appalling. Yet the progress is undeniable and enormous.
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