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When the Irish Republican Army (IRA) called its ceasefire in 1994,
there were high hopes that Irish Republican violence had ceased for
good. Then, in February 1996, came a major bomb attack at Canary
Wharf in London signalling the end of the 17-month ceasefire and
claiming the lives of two innocent people. In a subsequent bomb
incident in London, a device that prematurely exploded killed the
young IRA man who was about to plant it.
Even during the ceasefire, security/ intelligence agencies in
Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland had kept up their
surveillance on the IRA, albeit with a lower degree of intensity. In
the intelligence community, the breaking of the ceasefire did not
come as a big surprise. In the weeks prior to the Canary Wharf
incident, members of the Garda Special Branch (the Irish Republic's
police counter-subversive branch) noticed increased activity among
senior Republicans, especially in the Dublin area, with meetings
being held between senior figures. The conclusion was that a major
operation was being planned. According to Garda intelligence
sources, this information was passed to the police in the UK. This
is thought to have been the major factor that led to an alert among
British police a couple of weeks before the first bomb went off at
Canary Wharf. However, information available to the authorities in
the Republic and the UK was insufficient to estimate where an attack
might take place, or what the target might be.
Following the death of its 21-year-old member (Edward O'Brien) in
the premature bomb explosion, there was a period of inactivity for
several weeks on the part of the IRA, leading to hopes that the
organization was maintaining a de facto ceasefire. However, bombing
operations were revived in April 1996, and on the 26th of that month
the IRA planted one of the biggest bombs ever deployed in London: a
30 lb (13.6 kg) Semtex bomb placed underneath Hammersmith Bridge.
Fortunately, the bomb failed to explode due to a faulty detonator.
Had it gone off, there could have been significant damage and
potential loss of life.
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Some analysts estimate the current strength of the IRA at about 400
hard-core activists, with perhaps a similar number of 'auxiliary' or
'second-line' activists who can be called on in a crisis. Most of
these members, known as 'volunteers', are concentrated in Northern
Ireland, although a smaller number are based in the Republic of
Ireland and there are also small cells in the UK. IRA cells have
also operated from time to time in the USA and other overseas
locations. Many of these volunteers may not necessarily be full-time
but may work at other occupations.
There is believed to be a hard core of about 40 middle-ranking
members of the IRA who make operational decisions. Security forces
in the North believe they have identified most of these, but there
are always new, unknown people coming up in the organization.
Since declaring its ceasefire in 1994, the IRA is believed to have
kept its structure intact. Although for nearly a year and a half it
ceased its attacks on the Northern Ireland security forces and also
its bomb attacks on the mainland UK, it continued with its
'policing' role in Nationalist areas of Northern Ireland. IRA
members carried out regular punishment beatings and, under a 'flag
of convenience', murdered a number of alleged drug dealers. In
carrying out these killings, the IRA used the name of a hitherto
unknown organization, Direct Action Against Drugs.
While such violence is abhorrent to many on both sides of the
community in Northern Ireland, these activities were of value to the
IRA for a number of reasons: they asserted the organization's power
and authority in Nationalist areas; they helped to raise the morale
of volunteers by giving them a sense of purpose; they contributed to
keeping the IRA's 'military machine' in working order; they helped
to underline the traditional Republican rejection of the Northern
Irish police, the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC); and they served
to enhance the image of the IRA in those Republican areas where
there has been traditional support for the organization as well as a
desire for action against anti-social elements in the community.
Sources in the security/intelligence world in the Republic estimate
that the IRA has sufficient material to equip the equivalent of two
battalions, and that the material is sufficient to keep the IRA's
low-intensity war going indefinitely. The sources believe that,
despite the large holding of weaponry, the IRA continued to smuggle
arms into Ireland during the ceasefire as well as developing new
weapons, continuing to train its members and gathering intelligence
on the security forces in Northern Ireland. (In May 1996, the
Russian intelligence service (FSB) claimed that members of the
Estonian territorial reserve force, Kaitselit, had helped the IRA
buy weapons. The claim was strongly denied by an Estonian spokesman
who said that Estonian intelligence services had been "in extensive
contact on this matter with their British and Irish counterparts and
none has been able to confirm illegal weapons supplies by Estonia to
the IRA.")
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The IRA is the biggest, most significant and best organized of the
paramilitary groups operating in Ireland. (The organization is also
known as the Provisional IRA, PIRA, the Provos, and, in Irish, as
Oglaigh na hEireann.) The other main Republican paramilitary
organization, the hard-left Irish National Liberation Army (INLA),
has fractured into a number of very small feuding factions,
including a group called the Irish People's Liberation Organization
(IPLO). On the other side of the sectarian divide, the two main
Loyalist paramilitary organizations are the Ulster Defence
Association (UDA) and the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF).
The day-to-day running of the IRA is conducted by a seven-person
Army Council. Members of the council always include the chief of
staff, the adjutant general and the quartermaster general. In recent
times, the members have been mainly from Northern Ireland and the
Border counties. Members of the present council come from Belfast,
Derry, Donegal, north Monaghan and the Louth-Armagh border area.
The General Army Convention (GAC) is the supreme authority of the
IRA and meets on comparatively rare occasions. According to the IRA
Constitution, the GAC is to meet once every two years unless a
majority deem it better for military reasons to postpone a meeting.
Delegates to the GAC include IRA members selected by various units
within the organization as well as the members of the Army Council.
The GAC selects a 12-member Army Executive which meets at least once
every six months. One of the key roles of the executive is to select
the members of the Army Council. It is also the role of the
executive to advise the Army Council on all matters concerning the
IRA. When the GAC is not in session, the Army Council is the supreme
authority of the IRA. The planning and implementation of Army
Council decisions are carried out by the General Headquarters (GHQ)
Staff, which acts as the link between the council and Northern and
Southern commands. The Northern Command covers Northern Ireland as
well as the Republic's border counties, Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan,
Monaghan and Louth: a total of 11 counties. The Northern Command has
at least five brigades - Belfast, Derry, Donegal, Armagh and
Tyrone-Monaghan. The Southern Command, which covers 21 counties, has
a much smaller number of personnel spread lightly around the
Republic. It has a Dublin brigade and a number of smaller units in
the provinces. Each command has its own commanding officer, director
of operations and quartermaster. The operational arm consists of
cells known as Active Service Units (ASUs) each with usually five to
eight members, sometimes more. Occasionally, special teams are
assembled by the Army Council/GHQ Staff for special operations.
There is a women's section known as Cumann na mBan.
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An internal report drawn up by Garda intelligence gives the names
and addresses of those believed to occupy key positions in the upper
echelons of the IRA. The chief of staff is named as a middle-aged
man living in County Monaghan, just south of the Border in the
Republic. However, more recent reports suggest he has been succeeded
by a younger man, a native of Belfast.
The quartermaster general is named as a man living in County Louth
in the Republic. This is a key post as the quartermaster general
controls the major arms dumps of the organization, many of which are
believed to be located in the Republic.
According to the report, the officer commanding (OC) of the Northern
Command is a man living in Belfast. The OC of the Southern Command
is said to be a man living in the Tallaght area of Dublin. The
latter is suspected of playing a role in the London bombings that
marked the end of the IRA ceasefire and of being the 'controller' of
the Irishman who died in London when his bomb exploded prematurely.
The OC's second-in-command is named as a man living in the Dundrum
area of Dublin.
The report gives the names and addresses of two of the three Army
Council members who live in Northern Ireland. The third member is
listed as 'not known'. The chief strategist of the IRA is named as a
man living in Derry who is also active in Sinn Fein, the political
wing of the IRA.
According to the names listed in the Garda intelligence report, the
members of the Army Executive are mainly resident in the Republic.
Just one person listed is resident in Northern Ireland, the address
given being Co Tyrone. The others have addresses in Dublin, Mayo,
Limerick, Roscommon, Offaly, Wicklow and Sligo. One of those listed
is a woman. Most of the names would not be known to the general
public in Ireland but, despite the heavy concentration of names from
the Republic in the executive, there is no doubt that the people who
exercise real power in the organization - the members of the
seven-person Army Council, are mainly from Northern Ireland or the
Border counties.
It is believed that operations in the UK formally come under the
jurisdiction of the Southern Command, but in effect this arrangement
seems a very loose one. During the bombings in London early this
year, there is believed to have been as much input from the Northern
Command as from the Southern Command.
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The long-term objective of the IRA, as expressed in its 'Green Book'
- a handbook that every volunteer must study - is the 'establishment
of a Democratic Socialist Republic'; the short-term objective is
expressed simply as: 'Brits out'.
The political doctrine that drives the IRA is the concept that it
has the right to exercise force to compel the British to withdraw
from Northern Ireland.
Over the years, strategy has taken a number of forms. The main
recent strategy is to mount bomb attacks on the UK mainland. The IRA
believes that such attacks have a bigger impact on British public
opinion than similar attacks in Northern Ireland, resulting in
pressure on the government to withdraw from the North. According to
one report, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, leaders of Sinn Fein,
persuaded the IRA leadership not to resume attacks in Northern
Ireland early this year.
While the IRA would prefer to have the support of public opinion in
Ireland, ultimately it operates according to its own agenda,
regardless of what the majority of people in Ireland - North and
South - feel. Following recent general elections, Sinn Fein had only
about 1.5 per cent electoral support in the Republic and about 10
per cent in Northern Ireland, where the majority Protestant
population wants to retain the link with the UK. (In the North's
elections for forum peace talks this May, Sinn Fein's share of the
vote was about 15.4 per cent.) Many Irish critics of the IRA say the
organization should draw an obvious conclusion: that it does not
have a mandate for violence. However, according to the Green Book,
the organization considers that it is the direct representative of
the 1918 Dail Eireann, and that as such the IRA is the 'legal and
lawful government of the Irish Republic'. On this basis, the IRA
considers that it has a moral right to carry on a military campaign.
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An analysis of recent bombing operations in London suggests that the
IRA is not as effective as in previous campaigns. One bomb exploded
prematurely, killing the IRA man who was about to plant the device.
(Rumours in Republican circles are that the device exploded due to a
timing error made by the bomber, suggesting a lack of training and
experience.) Another bombing operation also ended in failure when a
30lb semtex bomb planted under Hammersmith Bridge failed to explode.
One conclusion that is being drawn is that the elimination of more
experienced bombers has left comparatively inexperienced people to
carry out operations on the ground. Questions are being asked about
the ability of the IRA to conduct an effective, sustained campaign
in Britain in the immediate future. However, the IRA has proved
itself very resilient over the years and in the longer term would
overcome the problems that have recently arisen.
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[ASU = Active Service Units. These are cells made up of 5-8
members, sometimes more}
Location
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Number of units/Strength
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Comments
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Northern
Command
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Belfast
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More than 100 members
believed to be active
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West
Belfast is one of the
most active centres of IRA
operations.
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Derry,
North Donegal
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Estimated
strength: 70-80.
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Derry
city has been a strong centre of IRA activity since the early years of the
Troubles.
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South
Armagh/North Louth
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Two
large ASUs, with up to 20 members.
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Regarded
as very active in the past.
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West
Fermanagh /Donegal
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One
ASU.
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Has been very active in the
Donegal Border region.
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South
Fermanagh
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One
ASU.
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(As above)
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Coalisland
area
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One
ASU.
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Has
been active intermittently.
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South
Derry
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One
ASU.
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(As above)
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North
Antrim
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One
ASU.
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(As above)
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Castlewellan
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One to two ASUs.
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Have been active
area intermittently.
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Down
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One
ASU.
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Has
been active in the Border
area.
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Southern
Command
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Dublin
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Believed to be a small number of ASUs.
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Difficult
to estimate personnel numbers but would be quite small.
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Other
areas
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Small
number of members spread thinly around
the country.
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Active
cell in Munster area
in charge of arms dumps.
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Sean Boyne is a Dublin-based journalist who specializes in defence
matters and international affairs.
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