|
|
I think we need to be careful about seeing the present historical moment as
"unique." This is the pitfall of "presentism" that it is all-too-easy to fall
into. Certainly the advent of the year 2000 is bringing with it a certain
quickening of "apocalyptic" interest--and a mountain of media attention
(including the Frontline program that has spawned this roundtable!).
There may be a mass suicide somewhere in some cult group, but I suspect that
once January 1 comes and goes, we will see a dramatic drop in media attention,
but a continued torrent of end-time TV preaching and paperback publishing, and
the continued flourishing of what Michael Barkun nicely calls "millennial
communities." These communities can, indeed, represent a kind of "millennium
in miniature" for those who belong to them--as I can testify, having been
part of such a community, in a little city mission in Dayton, Ohio, half a
century ago.
In the first place, awareness of the millennium has become so pervasive in the
culture that it's turned everyone into some sort of millenarian, regardless of
the degree or kind of religiosity. As the New York Times puts it, we're
surrounded by "millennium schlock"--trinkets, gimmicks, slogans,
publications, etc. While there have been other times when much smaller
societies experienced such pervasiveness, I'd be hard pressed to think of
another case involving a large, developed society--although a possible
exception might be a society in the throes of revolution. Second, the
millennialism is extraordinarily diverse. It includes religious millennialism
from a variety of traditions, as well as political millennialism on both the
Left and the Right. Most strikingly, it involves what seems to me a new
variety of millennialism--what I have called "the improvisational style." By
that I mean groups that appropriate symbols and ideas from a wide variety of
sources, both religious and secular, to create novel and quite idiosyncratic
new belief systems.
As to how this will play out over the next few months, the very multiplicity of
millenarian visions makes prediction almost impossible. This is in contrast to
past periods--for example, the 1840s, when the Millerites were active--when
millennialism might be large-scale but developed within a single, well-defined
religious tradition. The millennialism we're seeing isn't constrained by the
shared texts and concepts of a single tradition. That's especially true of the
improvisational variety I mentioned, which operates outside of any single
tradition.
"What's unique about our current time period, here on the cusp of the year
2000?"
The intensity of the technical in our apocalyptic imaginations--from the two
classic modern tropes: 1) fear of self destruction (the green movement) and
catastophe (y2k, UFOs) and 2) the hope for redemption in this world thru
technology (techno-utopia).
Added to which are the post-apocalyptic fear of technology out of control and
the potential "brave new world." techno-dystopia.
What makes this round so powerful is the linking of technology and
gloablization. Even the author of Ecclesiastes would have had to acknowledge
that this global community is something new under the sun. Whether this leads
to a global civilization in the next millennium, or a return to the kinds of
martial relations that have characterized the interaction of political
entitites for most of human history, is something that depends on us.
"How are millennial or apocalyptic expectations different today than in
general, or, at past millennial markers?"
In the past you had to believe in God to believe in the apocalypse. Now we
have good 'scientific' reasons for expecting the End. Y2K is therefore an
ideal trope for both millennial (largely new age, but also evangelical) and
apocalyptic (survivalist, fundamentalist) tropes.
Some past millennial markers (500/6000 AM I, 800/6000 AM II, 1000, 1033,
1500/7000 AM I) have been widely known and anticipated as millennial in the
culture keeping the count, others (1800/7000 AM II, 2000) have either been
unknown, or resolutely not assigned millennial meaning by the cultures that
keep count.
2000 is the first openly "millennial" date to occur in the context of an
officially "post-Christian" culture of skepticism. We won't really know what
difference this makes for at least another decade or so. There are certainly
all the strands of millennial expectation active and available for spreading if
the right circumstances come together.
"What do you expect to happen as we cross the threshold in a few months? What
might we be reading about or seeing on news?"--
Obviously y2k. Hard to call. The likelihood is nothing really serious, which
is what everyone not only expects, but is counting on. But if there are
troubles, we are not very well prepared for handling them, and then we will see
what kinds of "civic" virtues emerge where, and what happens when they don't
emerge.
Dogbert in the Dilbert comic strip said that 2000 is scary because it is a
"BIG ROUND NUMBER." I think that is a good observation. The number itself
excites the religious imagination. It causes people to imagine that we are
making a transition into a new era. It seems to be related to how people
react to certain types of numbers. Note the fears about 9-9-99 that were
expressed in relation to possible computer problems, but nothing
significantly devastating happened on that date.
I am afraid that we are already seeing events in the news related to
heightened millennial expectations around the number 2000. Buford Furrow's
recent attack on a Jewish Community Center in L.A. and his murder of a mail
carrier because he was a person of color was aimed at sparking the "Second
American Revolution." |
 | | |
the dome of the rock, jerusalem
| | |
The Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 appears to have been
fueled by a similar hatred of the federal government because of the events at
Waco in 1993. I am afraid that we will continue to see terrorist attacks in the
United States committed by individuals stimulated by heightened millennial
expectations who are part of the diffuse Euro-American nativist millennial
movement. Many people in this movement are peaceful, but I think some
individuals will be stimulated to take violent revolutionary actions.
An important focus of millennial expectations is Jerusalem, and right-wing
Jewish groups would like to remove the Dome of the Rock, which is sacred to
Muslims, to rebuild the Temple on that site. The rebuilding of the Temple in
Jerusalem feeds into Christian Dispensationalist predictions of the events that
will take place leading to Armageddon and the Second Coming. The political
ramifications if the Dome of the Rock is destroyed are truly terrifying to
contemplate.
I hope that, on the positive side, more people will be motivated to give
thought to peaceful ways to effect social change. This is the approach of
John Paul II to the millennium. We may see examples of progressive
millennialism in the diffuse New Age movement, but it also contains
expectations of cataclysm, but not, to my knowledge, revolution.
I wish everyone a peaceful millennium.
On the issue of what is different today, at the top of my list has to be the
extensive media attention to millennial groups. Whether they are marketed to
the general public as news or entertainment, millennial groups are more in the
public eye. For me, that raises the question whether there is actually more
millennial activity in the contemporary period or
whether more people are simply more aware of more of it. We need also to
consider carefully how media attention influences small, often fragile,
millennial groups. Groups like the Branch Davidians and Heaven's Gate, for
example, knew that they had to counter the media-borne impression that they
were wacky cults. Promulgation of Chen Tao's message through press conferences
left Teacher Chen with egg on his face after his prediction of God's imminent
arrival was not literally fulfilled and had to be reinterpreted. The use of
the internet, fax networks, and short-wave radio by many of the groups on the
far right that Michael Barkun has studied so well is another dimension of the
issue.
If nothing spectacular occurs around the turn of the year, I expect the media
to manifest "millennial fatigue." Without a major story to indicate that media
attention was warranted and without the simple hook of the three zeroes, the
high profile of the topic will begin to diminish. Significant millennial
activity that happens after the year 2000 will initially confound and surprise
observers who laid too much importance on the date. I don't think, however,
that the media's millennial fatigue will indicate anything about the prevalence
of millennial activity. It will go back to flying under the radar.
What's unique about our current time period, and how are millennial
expectations different from those of the past?
I return to my particular hobby-horse for this one: the media are
crucial to answering this question. Both broadcast media and
cyber-communication have fundamentally altered the cultural and social
situation for apocalyptic discourse, by 1) increasing both the amount and
the types of information available for millennialists to construct their
webs of meaning; 2) standardizing calendar and clock time to an
unprecedented degree, and habituating us to measuring time in smaller and
smaller units, thereby increasing our awareness of time's passage; and 3)
making possible the formation of new types of communities united not by
geography but by shared interests and media access.
Consider two of the traditional signs that have always been supposed to
accompany the apocalypse: "wars and rumors of wars" and earthquakes. Human
nature being what it is, there have always been ongoing conflicts taking place
around the globe at any one point in time. But now we have CNN to be there with
the television cameras, and images of death and destruction appear in
everyone's living room; and Internet users may log on and be treated to live or
nearly instantaneous personal reports of such events as a coup in Russia, or
bombing attacks in Israel.
Likewise, in the natural flow of geologic time, we
see that earthquakes have always been a daily occurrence around the world, and
that their frequency may ebb and flow according to natural processes, such as
plate tectonics, that we dimly
understand. But major tremors that once would have gone unreported, or about
which we might previously not have learned for months if not years, are now
reported on the nightly news; and geological data from around the world are now
posted to Internet sites and monitored carefully by millennialists anticipating
both "Earth Changes" and the return of Jesus.
The unique capability of Internet users to simultaneously monitor
multiple events and processes in the global theater creates a new awareness
of time and of the weight of historical action. This experience of time and
the associated expectation of a moment of singularity is sharply manifested
in the contemporary apocalyptic mood. For example, there is now a web site that
offers a continuous video image of Jerusalem's Mount of Olives, placed
strategically so that believers will be able to view the Second Coming of Jesus
via live Webcast when the proper moment arrives. A prominent mass-media
platform for apocalyptic preaching of a more New Age flavor is provided by
radio talk show host Art Bell. His programs "Coast to Coast" and "Dreamland,"
which focus on millennial predictions and psychic phenomena, are broadcast over
more than four hundred radio stations; these programs incessantly promote his
published books and web site, around which a dedicated Internet fan community
has arisen.
Through the links on the Art Bell site and other related pages, one can find
hundreds of communities of apocalyptic believers, devoted to the prophecies of
Nostradamus, Christian fundamentalism, the so-called Mayan prophecy, the return
of the aliens, or various mixtures of these and other traditions, engaging in
dialogues that move freely between Web pages, Internet chat rooms, obscure
magazines and newsletters, and talk radio programs. Many of these have focused
on the so-called "millennium bug," or Y2K computer crisis, as the objective
manifestation of apocalyptic anticipation. Regardless of the actual
consequences of the problem--the inability of computer systems to process
four-digit dates--the dire predictions of both religious prophets and
technical experts have converged on January 1, 2000, a millennial moment that
is a direct consequence of the global standardization of computer time.
What's going to happen?
I think that the millennium as a marketing opportunity is going to be a huge
flop. A lot of people who invested in the production of millennial souvenirs
and tchotchkes will lose their shirts. There is a pervasive cynicism about the
whole topic among those who are not inclined to view the millennium in
religious terms or as some type of spiritual event; it seems like nothing but
hype to these folks, and they will actively resist the hype. For those who are
inclined to view the year 2000 in religious terms, well, I expect that there
will be a variety of resolutions. Some will keep on making predictions and
postponing the date, in classic millennial fashion: we can already see some
groups setting their sights on 2003, 2007, 2012, and I'm sure we will see 2033
as another major apocalyptic deadline. Others will be more inclined to take
matters into their own hands, and we have already seen how this can spin out:
terrorism (a la Aum Shinrikyo and Oklahoma City), reform and revitalization
movements, cult suicides...given human ingenuity and the wide array of options
that our culture makes available, the number of possible responses to
apocalyptic disappointment seems unlimited.
We don't know how the Y2K problem will play out or how bad it will be (I remain
a cautiously optimistic agnostic on this question), and we also can't predict
the timing and location of natural disasters such as hurricanes and
earthquakes. Barring serious Y2K breakdowns and any ill-timed catastrophes that
could fan the flames of millennial fever, I expect that we will go through 2000
with a lot of cynicism and irony about millennial marketing hype, and some
joking (perhaps with a nervous edge) about oddball cult hysteria. The really
interesting part of this for me is the aftermath: what will people do after
we've come through 2000 unscathed, what will they make of the millennium after
we're actually in it and no longer anticipating it? This is the most creative
period of millennial ferment, and I think it will be exciting to watch in the
decades to come.
home ·
apocalypticism ·
book of revelation ·
antichrist ·
chronology ·
roundtable ·
primary sources ·
discussion
readings ·
video ·
glossary ·
links ·
synopsis
web site copyright WGBH educational foundation
|
